Enso chicago4/20/2023 b Epanechnikov kernel-weighted local polynomial (bandwidth 0.7) estimate of Table 1. Country boundaries again show sample countries.Ī Distribution of detrended weight-for-age z-scores (WAZ) during years classified as El Niño (red) and La Niña (blue) according to NOAA definition using NINO3.4 SSTs, with means of each distribution shown. There is substantial heterogeneity in how precipitation is affected by ENSO, with areas of both positive and negative correlation. d Pixel-level monthly correlation of precipitation (1980–2010) and 2-month lag NINO3.4 SST. Country boundaries indicate sample countries (those having at least 50% of the population living in locations where local temperature is significantly correlated with the second month lag ( t – 2) of the NINO3.4 SST index for at least 3 months of the year and with at least two Demographic and Health Surveys measuring anthropometrics). Teleconnections are defined as pixels where the local temperature shows ≥3 statistically significant months of correlation with the second month lag of NINO3.4 SSTs. c Pixel-level monthly correlation of surface temperature (1980–2010) from the UDEL climate dataset and 2-month lag of NINO3.4 Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in teleconnected locations. Country composition within each year is different, as a rotating sample of countries is surveyed in each year under the DHS program. Box plots indicate median (middle white line), 25th, 75th percentile (box), and 5th and 95th percentile (whiskers) as well as outliers (single points). b Weight-for-age z-score distribution over time in teleconnected countries ( n = 1,253,176 children from 51 surveys). El Niño and La Niña states are defined as follows: when the maximum of a 3-month rolling mean of monthly Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) values is >0.5 ☌ (Niño-like) or <−0.5 ☌ (Niña-like) compared to a moving reference climatology following NOAA CPC guidelines. El Niño or La Niña highlighted in red or blue, respectively. This demonstrates a pathway through which human well-being remains subject to predictable climatic processes.Ī ENSO time series. Results imply that almost 6 million additional children were underweight during the 2015 El Niño compared to a counterfactual of neutral ENSO conditions in 2015. This relationship looks similar at both global and regional scale, and has not appreciably weakened over the last four decades. ENSO's contemporaneous effects on child weight loss are detectable years later as decreases in height. Warmer El Niño conditions predict worse child undernutrition in most of the developing world, but better outcomes in the small number of areas where precipitation is positively affected by warmer ENSO. We estimate ENSO's association with child nutrition at global scale by combining variation in ENSO intensity from 1986-2018 with children's height and weight from 186 surveys conducted in 51 teleconnected countries, containing 48% of the world's under-5 population. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a principal component of global climate variability known to influence a host of social and economic outcomes, but its systematic effects on human health remain poorly understood.
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